NC State @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F12 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

NC State

3-4 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

California

3-3 · Power #55

final

Closing spread

CAL -9.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 18–29 CAL

✗ CAL (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -10.5

CloseCAL -9.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -10.5

1 → NCSU

CloseCAL -9.5

1 pt toward NC State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -10.5 · closed CAL -9.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel CAL -13

model CAL -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 44% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -10.5

CloseCAL -9.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 9.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 24–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 9.7; 39 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12	10–24	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LLLLL	0-7	0%	0-1	0-3
CAL WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	3-4
CAL UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 225 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
CAL	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.5 →−2.1▼ 7.6#79

CAL+2.0 →+5.5▲ 3.5#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NCSU

Longer bar = better

CAL

#76

Offense

◀ NCSU better

#95

Defense

CAL better ▶

#41

−0.3 #87

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+1.7 #3

61 plays #115

Pace

CAL faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	NCSU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #85	17.8 #24	CAL
Yards / play	5.74 #81	4.94 #27	CAL
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	+0.02 #35	CAL
Success rate	44% #61	41% #76	Even

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #101	32.3 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #100	5.84 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #80	+0.13 #84	Even
Success rate	40% #97	42% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	2.9 #122	7.1 #94	10.0 #112	6.4 #67	9.9 #17	16.3 #32
CAL allowed	6.2 #87	3.3 #13	9.5 #33	1.3 #6	7.0 #84	8.3 #21

CAL scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.7 #80	6.2 #104	11.8 #96	6.8 #61	5.5 #99	12.3 #84
NCSU allowed	9.9 #129	9.7 #103	19.6 #124	7.3 #106	5.4 #50	12.7 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.