Wake Forest @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff63°F0 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

2-4 · Power #89

▲ winner

Final

UConn

4-2 · Power #80

final

Closing spread

WAKE -2.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 30–29 CONN

✓ WAKE (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -1

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -1

3.5 → WAKE

CloseWAKE -2.5

3.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -1 · closed WAKE -2.5 · moved 3.5 toward WAKEmodel CONN -4

model CONN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 43% (104 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -1

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 2.5-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 23–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 2.8; 50.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–44	L	O62
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Close	UNM @ UTEP 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U54
Close	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-3.5	43–24	W	O52
Close	M-OH @ EMU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-2.5	12–13	L	U58.5
Loose	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Loose	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · loose	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Loose	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total	-5	24–27	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-0	0-1
CONN WWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OUOOU	3-2	60%	2-4
CONN OOOOO	6-0	100%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−3.0 →−6.0▼ 3.0#93

CONN−11.5 →−4.8▲ 6.7#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WAKE

Longer bar = better

CONN

#67

Offense

CONN better ▶

#51

#126

Defense

CONN better ▶

#40

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #99

70 plays #35

Pace

CONN faster ▶

73 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	WAKE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #76	21.7 #49	CONN
Yards / play	5.71 #83	5.06 #39	CONN
PPA / play	+0.17 #58	+0.03 #36	CONN
Success rate	45% #51	38% #35	Even

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #23	34.0 #122	CONN
Yards / play	6.15 #51	6.49 #122	CONN
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	+0.29 #126	CONN
Success rate	44% #60	53% #135	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.7 #58	8.5 #68	15.2 #58	8.0 #28	4.7 #121	12.7 #78
CONN allowed	4.7 #60	4.8 #25	9.5 #33	4.3 #40	7.8 #100	12.2 #69

CONN scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	8.5 #27	10.2 #42	18.7 #32	9.8 #13	7.3 #63	17.2 #24
WAKE allowed	7.8 #117	11.3 #122	19.2 #121	6.3 #84	8.5 #113	14.8 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.