SMU @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

SMU

5-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

2-4 · Power #96

final

Closing spread

SMU -16.5

✓ SMU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 35–19 STAN

✓ SMU (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -15

CloseSMU -16.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -15

1.5 → SMU

CloseSMU -16.5

1.5 pts toward SMU

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -15 · closed SMU -16.5 · moved 1.5 toward SMUmodel SMU -16

model SMU -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -15

CloseSMU -16.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 16.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 40–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 15.2; 62.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	LIB @ UTEP 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	42–28	L	O54.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	29–13	L	U47
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU –L–WW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
STAN WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU –U–OO	2-2	50%	5-1
STAN UUUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%
STAN	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.3 →+12.2▲ 1.9#18

STAN−5.0 →−5.5▼ 0.5#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SMU

Longer bar = better

STAN

#37

Offense

◀ SMU better

#121

#28

Defense

◀ SMU better

#111

+1.3 #8

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.5 #102

69 plays #41

Pace

◀ SMU faster

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #10	30.8 #108	SMU
Yards / play	6.20 #47	6.19 #112	SMU
PPA / play	+0.22 #33	+0.21 #118	SMU
Success rate	44% #57	44% #104	SMU

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	STAN off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #119	22.3 #53	SMU
Yards / play	4.72 #130	5.11 #41	SMU
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	−0.06 #8	SMU
Success rate	40% #101	35% #11	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	11.0 #9	12.3 #16	23.3 #8	8.0 #28	9.5 #20	17.5 #24
STAN allowed	5.2 #73	8.0 #78	13.2 #81	9.2 #127	8.5 #109	17.7 #125

STAN scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.7 #96	5.0 #120	9.7 #116	5.2 #84	5.5 #100	10.7 #105
SMU allowed	5.2 #73	7.2 #67	12.3 #69	7.2 #102	2.8 #6	10.0 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.