Virginia @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

4-2 · Power #77

final

Final

Clemson

5-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -20.5

✓ UVA W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 17–37 CLEM

✓ CLEM (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -22.5

CloseCLEM -20.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -22.5

2 → UVA

CloseCLEM -20.5

2 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -22.5 · closed CLEM -20.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel CLEM -19

model CLEM -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 47% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -22.5

CloseCLEM -20.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 20.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 48–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 19.2; 53.1 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-18	30–27	L	O52
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	PUR vs FAU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.25	28–26	L	U57.25
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Close	MIA vs GT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-19	20–23	L	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA L–WWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0
CLEM WWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA O–OUU	2-2	50%	4-2
CLEM OOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 256 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	6-2 75%
CLEM	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UVA 8–41 CLEM (1 tied) CLEM leads · 50 games since 1955 · CLEM has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−2.9 →+1.0▲ 3.9#64

CLEM+12.9 →+16.0▲ 3.1#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UVA

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#70

Offense

CLEM better ▶

#13

#66

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#50

+0.2 #59

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

+1.5 #6

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ UVA faster

69 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #77	21.7 #50	CLEM
Yards / play	6.08 #58	5.35 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #64	+0.06 #53	Even
Success rate	42% #80	38% #34	CLEM

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #12	22.0 #53	CLEM
Yards / play	7.02 #15	5.74 #84	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.42 #7	+0.11 #77	CLEM
Success rate	49% #18	39% #51	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	7.3 #48	8.8 #60	16.2 #50	3.8 #112	7.5 #54	11.3 #100
CLEM allowed	1.2 #4	7.8 #77	9.0 #30	4.7 #49	8.0 #103	12.7 #78

CLEM scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	15.0 #1	13.2 #10	28.2 #1	8.5 #24	4.3 #124	12.8 #75
UVA allowed	3.3 #30	7.5 #74	10.8 #57	6.7 #93	4.5 #33	11.2 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.