North Carolina @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

3-4 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

4-3 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

UVA -3.5

✓ UNC W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 28–31 UVA

✗ UVA (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -4.5

CloseUVA -3.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -4.5

1 → UNC

CloseUVA -3.5

1 pt toward North Carolina

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -4.5 · closed UVA -3.5 · moved 1 toward UNCmodel UVA -3

model UVA -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (163 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -4.5

CloseUVA -3.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 3.5-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 41–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 57.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 3.7; 49.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	15–14	L	U52
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	OKST vs WVU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	14–38	L	U64.5
Very close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	45–10	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LLLLL	1-6	14%	1-1	0-2
UVA –WWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4
UVA –OUUO	3-2	60%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	3-7 30%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%
UVA	5-5 50%	6-2 75%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNC 65–51 UVA (4 tied) UNC leads · 120 games since 1902 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Virginia 31 @ North Carolina 27	UNC -24	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+7.2 →+0.7▼ 6.5#68

UVA−2.9 →+1.0▲ 3.9#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNC

Longer bar = better

UVA

#65

Offense

Even

#65

#94

Defense

Even

#89

−0.6 #106

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+0.1 #66

73 plays #14

Pace

◀ UNC faster

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #37	25.7 #79	UNC
Yards / play	6.09 #54	5.97 #100	UNC
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.16 #102	UNC
Success rate	42% #86	42% #76	Even

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #73	30.4 #107	UVA
Yards / play	6.02 #57	5.99 #102	UVA
PPA / play	+0.17 #54	+0.16 #101	UVA
Success rate	43% #76	41% #65	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.4 #35	8.9 #61	16.3 #46	7.6 #40	9.0 #24	16.6 #28
UVA allowed	3.3 #25	8.4 #86	11.7 #61	8.7 #124	5.3 #45	14.0 #98

UVA scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	6.7 #58	8.6 #65	15.3 #57	3.3 #120	9.4 #19	12.7 #77
UNC allowed	6.4 #95	10.7 #119	17.1 #113	5.0 #54	8.3 #106	13.3 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.