Florida State @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

1-6 · Power #85

final

Final

Miami

7-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -21.5

✓ MIA W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 16–38 MIA

✓ MIA (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -21.5

CloseMIA -21.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -21.5

no move

CloseMIA -21.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -21.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -24.5

model MIA -24.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 47% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -21.5

CloseMIA -21.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 21.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 36–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 22.2; 57.1 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-22.25	29–7	L	U55
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-20	31–24	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LWLWL	2-5	29%	0-2	1-2
MIA –WLLW	4-2	67%	1-1	4-2

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UUOUU	1-6	14%	1-6
MIA –OOOO	6-0	100%	7-0

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
MIA	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	9-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FSU 1–0 MIA FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Miami 20 @ Florida State 27	FSU -14.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+14.6 →−0.1▼ 14.7#71

MIA+9.9 →+19.9▲ 10.0#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

FSU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#131

Offense

MIA better ▶

#80

Defense

MIA better ▶

#42

−1.4 #134

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.6 #33

61 plays #120

Pace

MIA faster ▶

72 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	FSU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #135	22.6 #57	MIA
Yards / play	4.50 #130	5.09 #40	MIA
PPA / play	−0.04 #127	+0.07 #52	MIA
Success rate	35% #132	36% #20	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	48.3 #2	25.0 #76	MIA
Yards / play	8.05 #1	5.49 #69	MIA
PPA / play	+0.42 #7	+0.20 #115	MIA
Success rate	54% #5	40% #58	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	3.6 #114	3.9 #128	7.4 #133	3.9 #109	3.7 #129	7.6 #129
MIA allowed	5.1 #73	8.1 #78	13.3 #79	4.9 #51	4.4 #30	9.3 #26

MIA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #7	10.9 #27	21.9 #13	12.6 #3	13.9 #1	26.4 #1
FSU allowed	5.9 #81	8.6 #88	14.4 #89	5.9 #69	4.7 #35	10.6 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.