UL Monroe @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at South Alabama · Conference game

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UL Monroe

5-1 · Power #115

final

Final

South Alabama

3-4 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -7.5

✓ USA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 19–28 USA

✓ USA (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -7.5

CloseUSA -7.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -7.5

no move

CloseUSA -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -7.5 · unchangedmodel USA -13.5

model USA -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (95 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -7.5

CloseUSA -7.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 7.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 46–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 8.4; 47.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	27–10	W	U44
Close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	FAU vs UTEP 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	28–25	L	O49
Close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	41–14	W	O53
Close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	25–9	W	U53
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Close	CONN vs BUFF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6	47–3	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLWWW	5-1	83%	1-1	3-1
USA W–LLW	2-4	33%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-1
USA O–UUU	2-4	33%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 239 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
USA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ULM 0–1 USA USA leads · 1 game since 2023 · USA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	South Alabama 55 @ UL Monroe 7	USA -10	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.3 →−9.7▲ 7.6#105

USA+0.8 →+0.1▼ 0.7#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ULM

Longer bar = better

USA

#109

Offense

USA better ▶

#16

#50

Defense

◀ ULM better

#79

+0.7 #29

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+1.3 #8

57 plays #134

Pace

USA faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	ULM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #106	24.6 #72	USA
Yards / play	4.94 #123	6.07 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.08 #66	Even
Success rate	36% #125	41% #72	USA

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #23	20.0 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #18	5.08 #39	USA
PPA / play	+0.35 #9	0.00 #26	Even
Success rate	49% #14	44% #102	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.3 #119	6.8 #101	10.2 #108	3.7 #114	9.0 #26	12.7 #74
USA allowed	6.3 #93	6.9 #56	13.1 #77	5.4 #60	6.0 #59	11.4 #59

USA scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.3 #65	12.9 #7	19.1 #26	10.7 #7	5.0 #112	15.7 #37
ULM allowed	6.7 #104	4.3 #15	11.0 #49	4.0 #30	5.0 #40	9.0 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.