Georgia State @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F9 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia State

2-4 · Power #110

final

Final

App State

2-4 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -7.5

✓ GAST W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 24–32 APP

✓ APP (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -9

CloseAPP -7.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -9

1.5 → GAST

CloseAPP -7.5

1.5 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -9 · closed APP -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward GASTmodel APP -6

model APP -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (91 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -9

CloseAPP -7.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 7.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 33–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 6.1; 55.4 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs USM 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6	44–7	W	U59.5
Very close	GAST vs TXST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-10.5	28–16	W	U58.5
Close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5
Close	UNT vs TEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	45–14	W	U68
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Close	UNT vs LT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	47–27	W	O68.25
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-1
APP LW–LW	2-3	40%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOOUO	3-2	60%	2-4
APP OU–OU	2-3	40%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 46% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
APP	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 0–1 APP APP leads · 1 game since 2023 · APP has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	App State 42 @ Georgia State 14	GAST -3	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−5.1 →−11.0▼ 5.9#111

APP−0.7 →−9.0▼ 8.3#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

GAST

Longer bar = better

APP

#101

Offense

APP better ▶

#81

#115

Defense

◀ GAST better

#133

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−1.7 #136

70 plays #37

Pace

APP faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #114	38.2 #130	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #90	6.88 #133	GAST
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.36 #137	GAST
Success rate	41% #95	51% #133	GAST

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #88	30.3 #106	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #72	6.23 #115	APP
PPA / play	+0.09 #86	+0.23 #121	APP
Success rate	43% #77	46% #117	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	2.2 #128	6.0 #109	8.2 #125	7.8 #37	5.2 #107	13.0 #76
APP allowed	12.5 #133	12.8 #130	25.3 #132	6.5 #92	6.3 #73	12.8 #82

APP scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.2 #128	11.5 #23	13.7 #79	5.2 #86	6.8 #76	12.0 #88
GAST allowed	7.7 #116	6.8 #57	14.5 #91	5.8 #70	10.0 #124	15.8 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.