Troy @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Troy

1-6 · Power #97

final

Final

Arkansas State

4-3 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -7.5

✓ TROY W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 23–30 ARST

✓ ARST (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -7

CloseARST -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -7

0.5 → ARST

CloseARST -7.5

0.5 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -7 · closed ARST -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARSTmodel ARST -1

model ARST -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (96 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -7

CloseARST -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 7.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 50.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 7; 54.5 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Very close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Close	CLT vs RICE 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	31–24	W	O52.25
Close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	38–39	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-3
ARST –LWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OUUUU	2-5	29%	1-6
ARST –OUUO	2-3	40%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 312 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ARST	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TROY 1–0 ARST TROY leads · 1 game since 2023 · TROY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Arkansas State 3 @ Troy 37	TROY -16.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY+2.8 →−9.1▼ 11.9#102

ARST−7.6 →−10.6▼ 3.0#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TROY

Longer bar = better

ARST

#111

Offense

Even

#104

#103

Defense

◀ TROY better

#126

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

0.0 #75

59 plays #130

Pace

ARST faster ▶

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #123	31.4 #113	Even
Yards / play	5.24 #105	6.72 #129	TROY
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.28 #129	TROY
Success rate	38% #110	50% #132	TROY

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #107	27.4 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #112	6.07 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #83	+0.17 #104	ARST
Success rate	38% #113	44% #108	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.4 #127	7.3 #90	9.7 #115	3.9 #109	5.4 #106	9.3 #115
ARST allowed	6.4 #97	9.3 #99	15.7 #100	6.4 #88	9.3 #117	15.7 #116

ARST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	5.7 #75	3.7 #130	9.4 #118	6.3 #70	6.9 #75	13.1 #67
TROY allowed	4.7 #57	9.0 #93	13.7 #85	8.7 #122	5.0 #40	13.7 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.