Coastal Carolina @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

4-3 · Power #101

final

Final

Troy

1-7 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

CCU -3.5

✓ TROY W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 28–25 TROY

✗ CCU (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCCU -4.5

CloseCCU -3.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCCU -4.5

1 → TROY

CloseCCU -3.5

1 pt toward Troy

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CCU -4.5 · closed CCU -3.5 · moved 1 toward TROYmodel CCU -1

model CCU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 46% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (89 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCCU -4.5

CloseCCU -3.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CCU as a 3.5-point road favorite at TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TROY won 38–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 3.1; 56.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	6–31	L	U52
Very close	HOU @ NAVY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	38–20	W	O51
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	52–14	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU LLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-1
TROY WLLLW	3-5	38%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: CCU away, as favorite; TROY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU UOOUO	5-2	71%	4-3
TROY UUUUO	3-5	38%	1-7

Went over in Q3. Of 347 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TROY	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−2.5 →−5.7▼ 3.2#93

TROY+2.8 →−9.7▼ 12.5#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CCU

Longer bar = better

TROY

#59

Offense

◀ CCU better

#105

#102

Defense

Even

#103

+0.4 #40

Turnovers

◀ CCU better

−0.6 #108

64 plays #91

Pace

◀ CCU faster

60 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #42	28.3 #94	CCU
Yards / play	6.18 #47	6.14 #107	CCU
PPA / play	+0.18 #52	+0.17 #103	CCU
Success rate	41% #95	45% #109	Even

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #120	31.6 #115	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #95	5.95 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #106	+0.14 #91	Even
Success rate	41% #98	44% #104	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	8.9 #21	9.9 #44	18.7 #26	7.3 #44	5.9 #98	13.1 #68
TROY allowed	5.8 #84	9.1 #99	14.9 #94	8.0 #117	5.4 #48	13.4 #90

TROY scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.1 #129	6.8 #105	8.9 #124	6.0 #72	5.6 #104	11.6 #96
CCU allowed	5.9 #85	10.9 #123	16.7 #109	5.4 #59	9.4 #118	14.9 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.