Georgia State @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Fri, Nov 1, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff58°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

2-5 · Power #110

final

Final

UConn

5-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -7.5

✓ GAST W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 20–28 CONN

✓ CONN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -7

CloseCONN -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -7

0.5 → CONN

CloseCONN -7.5

0.5 pts toward UConn

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -7 · closed CONN -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward CONNmodel CONN -9.5

model CONN -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (100 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -7

CloseCONN -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 7.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 34–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 8.5; 45.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75
Very close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	2-1
CONN WWLLW	5-3	63%	4-2	3-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OOUOU	3-3	50%	2-5
CONN OOOUU	6-2	75%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 290 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 1–0 CONN GAST leads · 1 game since 2023 · GAST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	UConn 14 @ Georgia State 35	GAST -3	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−5.1 →−10.9▼ 5.8#113

CONN−11.5 →−4.7▲ 6.8#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

GAST

Longer bar = better

CONN

#94

Offense

CONN better ▶

#77

#118

Defense

CONN better ▶

#22

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−0.5 #101

68 plays #62

Pace

CONN faster ▶

72 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	GAST off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #109	20.4 #32	CONN
Yards / play	5.69 #78	4.80 #17	CONN
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	−0.03 #11	CONN
Success rate	42% #90	38% #26	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #45	30.7 #108	CONN
Yards / play	5.76 #76	6.39 #122	CONN
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.24 #125	CONN
Success rate	40% #98	46% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	1.9 #133	7.4 #87	9.3 #117	7.7 #37	4.9 #116	12.6 #77
CONN allowed	4.3 #44	4.9 #22	9.1 #26	4.1 #31	7.1 #89	11.3 #54

CONN scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	6.8 #53	8.0 #74	14.8 #57	9.1 #20	7.6 #52	16.8 #22
GAST allowed	6.9 #109	8.1 #80	15.0 #94	6.0 #74	9.7 #122	15.7 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.