South Florida @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Fri, Nov 1, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F12 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

3-4 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

2-5 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

USF -1.5

✓ USF W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 25–24 FAU

✓ USF (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -2

CloseUSF -1.5

Total53.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -2

0.5 → FAU

CloseUSF -1.5

0.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Total

Open53.5

▼ 6

Close47.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -2 · closed USF -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward FAUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -2

CloseUSF -1.5

Total53.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 1.5-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 44–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2.7; 55.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Close	CMU @ BUFF 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–37	L	U52
Close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	6–31	L	U52
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Loose	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2	10–17	L	U49
Loose	NIU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.75	33–27	W	O59
Loose	HOU @ NAVY 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread	-3	38–20	W	O51
Loose	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF –LLLL	1-4	20%	1-1	0-1
FAU WLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF –OUUO	2-3	40%	3-4
FAU OOUOO	4-3	57%	2-5

Went over in Q3. Of 280 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
FAU	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USF 5–2 FAU USF leads · 7 games since 2002 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Florida Atlantic 56 @ South Florida 14	USF -2.5	FAU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−7.2▼ 2.8#96

FAU−6.9 →−9.6▼ 2.7#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USF

Longer bar = better

FAU

#113

Offense

FAU better ▶

#98

#87

Defense

FAU better ▶

#67

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #39

70 plays #28

Pace

◀ USF faster

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: FAU defense

	USF off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #92	28.1 #92	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #122	5.71 #84	FAU
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.02 #30	FAU
Success rate	36% #123	40% #62	FAU

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #98	30.0 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #92	6.00 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.15 #94	Even
Success rate	39% #109	40% #48	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USF scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.7 #75	8.1 #65	13.9 #75	7.7 #37	3.6 #131	11.3 #98
FAU allowed	6.1 #92	7.9 #77	14.0 #86	5.3 #59	8.9 #114	14.1 #100

FAU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	4.4 #99	9.1 #58	13.6 #80	7.4 #41	3.4 #132	10.9 #104
USF allowed	9.4 #130	6.9 #57	16.3 #109	3.4 #18	10.3 #127	13.7 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.