San Diego State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Fri, Nov 1, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Diego State

3-4 · Power #122

final

Final

Boise State

6-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -24.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 14–39 BOIS

✓ BOIS (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -24

CloseBOIS -24.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -24

0.5 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -24.5

0.5 pts toward Boise State

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -24 · closed BOIS -24.5 · moved 0.5 toward BOISmodel BOIS -27.5

model BOIS -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 47% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -24

CloseBOIS -24.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 24.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 56–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 24.8; 54 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-24	40–14	W	U58
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LWWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
BOIS –WWWW	5-1	83%	2-0	4-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UUOOU	2-4	33%	3-4
BOIS –OOUU	4-2	67%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 263 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	3-6 33%
BOIS	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 0–1 BOIS BOIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · BOIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2023	Boise State 34 @ San Diego State 31	BOIS -5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−8.3 →−10.1▼ 1.8#109

BOIS+2.2 →+10.8▲ 8.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

SDSU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#108

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#60

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#76

+0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

+0.3 #49

65 plays #85

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	SDSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #107	25.9 #79	BOIS
Yards / play	5.23 #111	5.67 #80	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	36% #125	40% #50	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.3 #3	23.6 #65	BOIS
Yards / play	7.42 #3	5.18 #42	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.41 #5	+0.09 #66	BOIS
Success rate	47% #19	41% #67	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.6 #99	5.9 #115	10.4 #110	4.4 #101	7.4 #60	11.9 #95
BOIS allowed	4.9 #61	6.7 #54	11.6 #64	6.9 #99	7.4 #93	14.3 #100

BOIS scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	8.3 #29	16.7 #1	25.0 #2	5.4 #83	13.9 #1	19.3 #8
SDSU allowed	5.9 #82	4.3 #13	10.1 #38	5.4 #59	8.0 #104	13.4 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.