Boise State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Fri, Oct 25, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Boise State

5-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

UNLV

6-1 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

BOIS -3.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 34–31 UNLV

✓ BOIS (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -2.5

CloseBOIS -3.5

Total65.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -2.5

1 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -3.5

1 pt toward Boise State

Total

Open65.5

▼ 3

Close62.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -2.5 · closed BOIS -3.5 · moved 1 toward BOISmodel BOIS -0.5

model BOIS -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 44% (98 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -2.5

CloseBOIS -3.5

Total65.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 3.5-point road favorite at UNLV, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 29–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 7 against an average line of 3.6; 62.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-1	37–44	L	O61.5
Close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Close	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Close	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	32–27	W	U65.5
Close	OU @ BAY 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-4	14–27	L	U63
Close	PITT @ UNC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–24	W	U62.5
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-3	10–24	L	U59
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	32–42	L	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS W–WWW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-1
UNLV WWLLW	4-2	67%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; UNLV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS O–OOU	4-1	80%	5-1
UNLV UOOOU	4-2	67%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	7-2 78%
UNLV	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BOIS 1–0 UNLV BOIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · BOIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 2 2023	Boise State 44 @ UNLV 20	BOIS -2	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+2.2 →+10.5▲ 8.3#22

UNLV−2.0 →+7.1▲ 9.1#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BOIS

Longer bar = better

UNLV

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#20

#74

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#40

+0.2 #63

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.7 #3

67 plays #60

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	46.8 #3	22.6 #58	BOIS
Yards / play	7.79 #2	5.18 #48	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.45 #4	0.00 #22	Even
Success rate	50% #11	38% #30	Even

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #5	26.2 #82	UNLV
Yards / play	6.71 #21	5.58 #78	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	+0.12 #87	UNLV
Success rate	46% #40	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.2 #18	16.7 #1	25.8 #3	5.8 #74	15.2 #1	21.0 #5
UNLV allowed	5.4 #74	3.9 #10	9.3 #32	6.0 #79	6.4 #74	12.4 #78

UNLV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.9 #15	14.4 #3	24.3 #7	7.6 #38	11.3 #7	18.9 #11
BOIS allowed	4.0 #47	7.8 #75	11.8 #66	5.7 #70	8.7 #111	14.3 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.