UNLV @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff61°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

UNLV

5-1 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

4-2 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

UNLV -6.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 32–26 ORST

✓ UNLV (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -6

CloseUNLV -6.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -6

0.5 → UNLV

CloseUNLV -6.5

0.5 pts toward UNLV

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -6 · closed UNLV -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -5.5

model UNLV -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (84 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -6

CloseUNLV -6.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 6.5-point road favorite at ORST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 33–25; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 6; 61.2 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Very close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	24–31	L	U59
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	35–24	W	U60
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	WAKE @ SYR 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	40–37	L	O58.5
Very close	WKU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	35–17	W	U67.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	TCU @ WVU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	41–31	W	O69.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
ORST W–WLL	2-3	40%	1-2	—

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; ORST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUOOO	4-1	80%	5-1
ORST U–OOO	3-2	60%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 45% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	8-1 89%
ORST	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.0 →+6.6▲ 8.6#36

ORST+7.8 →−0.8▼ 8.6#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UNLV

Longer bar = better

ORST

#19

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#46

#38

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#109

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.2 #87

64 plays #106

Pace

ORST faster ▶

75 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #4	26.3 #86	UNLV
Yards / play	6.88 #14	6.52 #125	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.28 #16	+0.18 #110	UNLV
Success rate	46% #40	45% #115	UNLV

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #50	22.2 #51	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #68	5.21 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #54	−0.02 #16	UNLV
Success rate	49% #13	38% #37	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	11.0 #10	14.7 #3	25.7 #4	7.7 #39	11.5 #7	19.2 #9
ORST allowed	5.0 #71	5.3 #36	10.3 #48	3.8 #27	11.0 #130	14.8 #110

ORST scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	5.8 #78	8.5 #68	14.3 #72	4.7 #96	9.7 #18	14.3 #57
UNLV allowed	5.8 #78	2.2 #3	8.0 #19	7.0 #98	6.2 #69	13.2 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.