New Mexico @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

2-4 · Power #111

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

1-5 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

UNM -0.5

✓ UNM W

Total

77.5

▲ Over · 95 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 38–38 USU

✓ UNM (50%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -2.5

CloseUNM -0.5

Total77.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -2.5

2 → USU

CloseUNM -0.5

2 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open77.5

no move

Close77.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -2.5 · closed UNM -0.5 · moved 2 toward USUmodel USU -1.5

model USU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 48% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -2.5

CloseUNM -0.5

Total77.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like UNM as a 0.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 50–45; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 7 similar games. 95 points went over 77.5, as in 4 of 7.

Favorite won

1 of 714%

Below normal · usually 55%

Favorite covered

1 of 714%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 11.7 against an average line of 2.6; 65.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNT @ TLSA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	35–28	W	U69.5
Close	LT @ CLT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	21–26	L	U66.5
Close	USF @ UAB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–56	L	O68.5
Loose	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	28–45	L	O67.5
Loose	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Loose	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Loose	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	29–52	L	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-0
USU LWLLW	2-3	40%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: UNM away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOUOO	5-1	83%	2-4
USU UOOOO	4-1	80%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
USU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 15–17 USU USU leads · 32 games since 1951 · UNM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Utah State 44 @ New Mexico 41	USU -5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.4 →−12.9▼ 1.5#118

USU−6.9 →−13.6▼ 6.7#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UNM

Longer bar = better

USU

#31

Offense

◀ UNM better

#76

#132

Defense

Even

#133

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−1.3 #129

70 plays #32

Pace

Even

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #25	42.8 #134	UNM
Yards / play	6.52 #33	6.81 #130	UNM
PPA / play	+0.26 #25	+0.35 #136	UNM
Success rate	46% #41	51% #130	UNM

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #96	42.7 #133	USU
Yards / play	6.46 #38	7.35 #135	USU
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.29 #127	USU
Success rate	41% #88	51% #132	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	8.5 #24	11.5 #20	20.0 #21	6.7 #64	8.7 #36	15.3 #45
USU allowed	6.8 #104	20.7 #134	27.5 #133	6.2 #83	9.2 #120	15.3 #117

USU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	4.0 #102	7.5 #85	11.5 #97	6.3 #67	7.2 #66	13.5 #67
UNM allowed	7.7 #116	10.7 #117	18.3 #119	7.5 #108	16.8 #133	24.3 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.