Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Tue, Oct 15, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F5 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

0-5 · Power #133

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-5 · Power #129

▲ winner

Closing spread

MTSU -10.5

✓ KENN W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 20–30 MTSU

✓ MTSU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMTSU -10

CloseMTSU -10.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMTSU -10

0.5 → MTSU

CloseMTSU -10.5

0.5 pts toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MTSU -10 · closed MTSU -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward MTSUmodel MTSU -9.5

model MTSU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMTSU -10

CloseMTSU -10.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 10.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 14–5; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 9.5; 44.7 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OHIO vs AKR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-10	55–34	W	O59
Close	CSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-8.5	27–17	W	U49
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	NMSU vs MASS 2021 · Week 13 · close	-7	44–27	W	O59
Close	CSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	17–13	L	U46
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Close	VAN vs CONN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	30–28	L	O51.25
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-10	14–21	L	U49
Loose	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-10	28–0	W	U44
Loose	BALL vs KENT 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	34–3	W	U42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN –LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-4
MTSU LLLWL	1-4	20%	0-2	—

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN –UUUO	1-3	25%	0-5
MTSU UOOUO	3-2	60%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 6	0-6 0%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%
MTSU	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KENN 1–1 MTSU Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · KENN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−17.4 →−24.7▼ 7.3#133

MTSU−7.5 →−18.7▼ 11.2#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

KENN

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#137

Offense

MTSU better ▶

#115

#120

Defense

◀ KENN better

#134

−0.8 #112

Turnovers

◀ KENN better

−1.3 #130

61 plays #113

Pace

Even

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #135	40.5 #131	Even
Yards / play	3.69 #137	7.11 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.18 #137	+0.42 #137	Even
Success rate	28% #137	52% #134	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #129	36.0 #123	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #99	6.45 #120	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	38% #116	48% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	3.2 #120	5.4 #112	8.6 #121	2.0 #128	4.0 #125	6.0 #131
MTSU allowed	13.2 #133	10.2 #109	23.3 #131	11.3 #133	5.8 #57	17.2 #122

MTSU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.2 #84	2.8 #132	8.0 #124	5.8 #76	3.0 #132	8.8 #121
KENN allowed	4.2 #51	13.6 #130	17.8 #114	11.2 #132	7.0 #84	18.2 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.