Oklahoma State @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Fri, Oct 18, 2024, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

3-3 · Power #87

final

Final

BYU

6-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

BYU -7.5

✓ OKST W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 23–32 BYU

✓ BYU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -8.5

CloseBYU -7.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -8.5

1 → OKST

CloseBYU -7.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -8.5 · closed BYU -7.5 · moved 1 toward OKSTmodel BYU -14

model BYU -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -8.5

CloseBYU -7.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 7.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 38–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 8.2; 56.9 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	28–13	W	U57
Close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-11	63–17	W	O54
Close	WVU vs TTU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	20–23	L	U55.25
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-6	24–31	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST LWLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	0-2
BYU W–WWW	4-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OUUOU	3-3	50%	3-3
BYU U–UOO	2-2	50%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 277 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BYU	6-4 60%	6-2 75%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OKST 1–0 BYU OKST leads · 1 game since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	BYU 34 @ Oklahoma State 40	OKST -16.5	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST+4.1 →+0.7▼ 3.4#66

BYU−4.1 →+8.5▲ 12.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

OKST

Longer bar = better

BYU

#75

Offense

BYU better ▶

#52

#98

Defense

BYU better ▶

#16

0.0 #79

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+1.2 #14

67 plays #63

Pace

◀ OKST faster

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	OKST off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #58	16.3 #16	BYU
Yards / play	5.79 #78	4.42 #9	BYU
PPA / play	+0.17 #57	−0.05 #10	BYU
Success rate	39% #105	37% #28	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #30	27.2 #91	BYU
Yards / play	6.04 #61	6.52 #125	BYU
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.15 #94	BYU
Success rate	44% #67	42% #81	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	3.8 #112	8.7 #62	12.5 #94	6.2 #72	10.2 #13	16.3 #30
BYU allowed	2.8 #17	5.3 #40	8.2 #24	3.8 #28	4.3 #28	8.2 #24

BYU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	8.2 #32	9.0 #55	17.2 #45	11.5 #5	5.7 #94	17.2 #23
OKST allowed	5.2 #71	9.7 #101	14.8 #97	4.0 #33	8.3 #110	12.3 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.