Houston @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Houston

2-4 · Power #76

final

Final

Kansas

1-5 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -5.5

✓ KU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 19–25 KU

✓ KU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -6.5

CloseKU -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -6.5

1 → HOU

CloseKU -5.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -6.5 · closed KU -5.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel KU -10

model KU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -6.5

CloseKU -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 5.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 42–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 5.9; 49.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-7	27–10	W	U44
Close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	NEB vs NU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	17–9	L	U40
Close	TROY vs ULM 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6	9–13	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WW–LW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1
KU LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UU–UU	0-4	0%	2-4
KU UUOOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 225 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	3-7 30%	5-3 63%	1-7 13%
KU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−3.5 →−1.9▲ 1.6#77

KU+7.2 →+4.4▼ 2.8#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HOU

Longer bar = better

#127

Offense

KU better ▶

#60

#33

Defense

◀ HOU better

#89

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #89

59 plays #130

Pace

KU faster ▶

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	HOU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #136	25.7 #81	KU
Yards / play	5.01 #116	5.61 #79	KU
PPA / play	−0.06 #131	+0.15 #96	KU
Success rate	36% #125	44% #101	KU

When KU has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	KU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #71	20.5 #39	HOU
Yards / play	6.10 #54	4.97 #29	HOU
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	45% #59	36% #20	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.0 #103	4.3 #126	8.3 #122	2.0 #129	3.3 #131	5.3 #133
KU allowed	4.5 #56	8.0 #79	12.5 #70	2.2 #7	11.0 #128	13.2 #85

KU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	5.8 #77	10.7 #35	16.5 #47	6.3 #68	5.7 #94	12.0 #90
HOU allowed	5.2 #72	5.0 #29	10.2 #46	5.0 #56	5.3 #49	10.3 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.