Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Tue, Oct 15, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

2-3 · Power #112

final

Final

New Mexico State

1-5 · Power #130

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -12.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 29–17 NMSU

✗ LT (79%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -12

CloseLT -12.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -12

0.5 → LT

CloseLT -12.5

0.5 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -12 · closed LT -12.5 · moved 0.5 toward LTmodel LT -7.5

model LT -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 56% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -12

CloseLT -12.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 12.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 33–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 11.7; 59.6 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Very close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Very close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Very close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Very close	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Very close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	41–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT –WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
NMSU WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: LT away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT –OUUO	2-2	50%	2-3
NMSU UUUOO	2-4	33%	1-5

Went over in OT. Of 262 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	2-8 20%	2-7 22%	6-3 67%
NMSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LT 0–1 NMSU NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 24 2023	New Mexico State 27 @ Louisiana Tech 24	LT -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−10.9▼ 0.7#113

NMSU−7.8 →−22.6▼ 14.8#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#108

Offense

◀ LT better

#125

#21

Defense

◀ LT better

#120

−1.4 #131

Turnovers

Even

−1.3 #128

68 plays #58

Pace

◀ LT faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #97	38.2 #128	LT
Yards / play	5.45 #100	6.72 #126	LT
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	+0.30 #129	Even
Success rate	38% #115	44% #98	Even

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	NMSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #124	21.6 #49	LT
Yards / play	4.31 #135	4.71 #18	LT
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	−0.03 #15	LT
Success rate	37% #118	33% #3	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LT scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	5.8 #78	8.8 #60	14.6 #67	5.4 #83	4.6 #122	10.0 #112
NMSU allowed	8.7 #125	12.2 #129	20.8 #128	7.2 #101	10.2 #125	17.3 #126

NMSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.8 #112	3.8 #129	7.7 #126	1.2 #132	9.7 #20	10.8 #104
LT allowed	7.6 #115	1.8 #5	9.4 #33	7.0 #95	4.6 #36	11.6 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.