Florida State @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Fri, Oct 18, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida State

1-5 · Power #85

final

Final

Duke

5-1 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -2.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 20–22 DUKE

✓ DUKE (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -3

CloseDUKE -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -3

0.5 → FSU

CloseDUKE -2.5

0.5 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -3 · closed DUKE -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward FSUmodel DUKE -3.5

model DUKE -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (155 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -3

CloseDUKE -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 2.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 23–16; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.4; 47.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	27–10	W	U45
Close	MINN vs ILL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	26–27	L	O44
Close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Close	CIN vs BAY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	29–32	L	O50.5
Close	TOL vs M-OH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Close	COLO vs MINN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	0–30	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LLWLW	2-4	33%	0-1	1-1
DUKE WLWW–	3-2	60%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UUUOU	1-5	17%	1-5
DUKE OOOUU	3-3	50%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
DUKE	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FSU 1–0 DUKE FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Duke 20 @ Florida State 38	FSU -14	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+14.6 →+0.9▼ 13.7#65

DUKE+4.0 →+1.7▼ 2.3#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FSU

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#126

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#99

#96

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#13

−1.0 #124

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.3 #56

61 plays #124

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	FSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #134	17.5 #22	DUKE
Yards / play	4.52 #130	4.27 #5	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	−0.06 #8	DUKE
Success rate	35% #128	36% #17	DUKE

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #85	25.3 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #103	5.84 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.25 #123	DUKE
Success rate	39% #106	42% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	3.7 #113	4.0 #129	7.7 #128	3.3 #118	3.8 #128	7.2 #128
DUKE allowed	5.0 #68	4.0 #17	9.0 #30	4.0 #33	3.3 #15	7.3 #17

DUKE scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.5 #40	5.2 #114	12.7 #93	4.8 #95	6.7 #75	11.5 #98
FSU allowed	5.7 #78	8.3 #85	14.0 #90	6.3 #83	5.0 #39	11.3 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.