Miami @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Miami

6-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

4-2 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

MIA -4.5

✓ MIA W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 97 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 32–27 LOU

✓ MIA (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -4.5

CloseMIA -4.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -4.5

no move

CloseMIA -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -4.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -3.5

model MIA -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 46% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -4.5

CloseMIA -4.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 4.5-point road favorite at LOU, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 52–45; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 97 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 7.5 against an average line of 3.9; 55.5 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN @ LSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	40–13	W	U63.5
Very close	OSU @ MICH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	27–42	L	O64.5
Very close	OU @ BAY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	14–27	L	U63
Close	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	32–27	W	U65.5
Close	CCU @ APP 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	27–30	L	U60.75
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	ORST @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–27	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA W–WLL	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2
LOU WWLLL	3-3	50%	3-1	0-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; LOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA O–OOO	5-0	100%	6-0
LOU OUOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 140 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	8-1 89%
LOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 0–1 LOU LOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Louisville 38 @ Miami 31	Pick’em	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+9.9 →+19.0▲ 9.1#8

LOU+9.6 →+13.5▲ 3.9#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIA

Longer bar = better

LOU

Offense

◀ MIA better

#25

#18

Defense

◀ MIA better

#48

+0.7 #29

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

+0.2 #58

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ MIA faster

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	47.7 #1	19.7 #30	MIA
Yards / play	8.15 #1	5.22 #54	MIA
PPA / play	+0.42 #6	+0.09 #64	MIA
Success rate	54% #5	38% #42	MIA

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #22	18.8 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.18 #13	4.86 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #26	−0.02 #17	Even
Success rate	46% #38	34% #5	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.2 #9	10.3 #40	21.5 #18	12.3 #3	13.8 #2	26.2 #1
LOU allowed	8.2 #121	5.7 #43	13.8 #87	2.0 #8	3.8 #19	5.8 #8

LOU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.0 #34	11.5 #21	19.5 #24	9.8 #13	6.8 #71	16.7 #28
MIA allowed	4.8 #67	7.8 #77	12.7 #75	3.3 #23	2.8 #6	6.2 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.