Louisville @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Fri, Oct 25, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisville

4-3 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

4-3 · Power #58

final

Closing spread

LOU -7.5

✓ BC W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 30–22 BC

✓ LOU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -7

CloseLOU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -7

0.5 → LOU

CloseLOU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -7 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward LOUmodel LOU -11

model LOU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (75 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -7

CloseLOU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 7.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 31–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 7.9; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	31–38	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WLLLL	3-4	43%	0-2	3-2
BC WLLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU UOOUO	5-2	71%	4-3
BC UUUUO	2-5	29%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 292 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
BC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 11–7 BC LOU leads · 18 games since 1986 · LOU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Boston College 28 @ Louisville 56	LOU -14	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+13.1▲ 3.5#18

BC−1.3 →+0.8▲ 2.1#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LOU

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

◀ LOU better

#85

#79

Defense

BC better ▶

#47

+0.1 #64

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #67

65 plays #81

Pace

◀ LOU faster

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #20	20.7 #38	Even
Yards / play	7.03 #11	5.39 #61	LOU
PPA / play	+0.28 #14	+0.06 #48	LOU
Success rate	46% #38	39% #41	Even

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #83	24.3 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #84	5.58 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #84	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	42% #88	41% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.9 #32	11.3 #23	19.1 #25	10.4 #10	7.9 #47	18.3 #12
BC allowed	3.9 #40	8.6 #87	12.4 #73	2.9 #11	5.4 #48	8.3 #20

BC scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.0 #105	9.9 #39	13.9 #74	7.4 #41	5.0 #115	12.4 #82
LOU allowed	8.4 #122	6.9 #58	15.3 #98	3.7 #27	5.3 #44	9.0 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.