Syracuse @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Thu, Oct 24, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

5-1 · Power #43

final

Final

Pittsburgh

6-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -4.5

✓ PITT W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 27–32 PITT

✓ PITT (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -4

ClosePITT -4.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -4

0.5 → PITT

ClosePITT -4.5

0.5 pts toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open60.5

▲ 2

Close62.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -4 · closed PITT -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward PITTmodel PITT -4.5 matches the line

model PITT -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -4

ClosePITT -4.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 4.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 41–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 5.1; 60.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	41–19	W	U65
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	GASO vs CCU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6	38–28	W	O64.5
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	WAKE vs LOU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	37–34	L	O64.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-0	2-0
PITT LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUUOU	2-4	33%	5-1
PITT UOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
PITT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SYR 1–0 PITT SYR leads · 1 game since 2023 · SYR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Pittsburgh 13 @ Syracuse 28	PITT -3.5	SYR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−2.1 →+4.0▲ 6.1#53

PITT−0.9 →+5.6▲ 6.5#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SYR

Longer bar = better

PITT

#34

Offense

PITT better ▶

#15

#97

Defense

PITT better ▶

#45

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #48

79 plays #3

Pace

◀ SYR faster

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #33	23.5 #65	SYR
Yards / play	5.98 #59	4.80 #17	PITT
PPA / play	+0.25 #22	+0.09 #66	SYR
Success rate	48% #20	38% #33	Even

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #10	24.7 #74	PITT
Yards / play	7.18 #9	6.10 #107	PITT
PPA / play	+0.29 #14	+0.17 #104	PITT
Success rate	47% #27	44% #102	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.3 #64	10.8 #33	17.2 #36	8.7 #23	7.0 #70	15.7 #38
PITT allowed	6.8 #105	7.2 #68	14.0 #87	6.8 #97	2.7 #5	9.5 #31

PITT scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.7 #16	11.5 #21	21.2 #15	7.5 #41	12.2 #4	19.7 #8
SYR allowed	3.3 #29	9.7 #106	13.0 #78	4.0 #30	7.2 #90	11.2 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.