Syracuse @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

4-1 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

NC State

3-3 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

SYR -1.5

✓ SYR W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 29–27 NCSU

✓ SYR (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -4

CloseSYR -1.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSYR -4

2.5 → NCSU

CloseSYR -1.5

2.5 pts toward NC State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SYR -4 · closed SYR -1.5 · moved 2.5 toward NCSUmodel SYR -3.5

model SYR -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 44% (61 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -4

CloseSYR -1.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 1.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 3.1; 55.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Very close	LSU @ MSST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–25	W	U55
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Close	WMU @ TOL 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	15–34	L	U54.5
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	27–24	L	U54
Close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	52–14	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-0	0-3
NCSU LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-4	0-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUUUO	2-3	40%	4-1
NCSU OOOUO	4-2	67%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 56% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NCSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−2.1 →+3.8▲ 5.9#55

NCSU+5.5 →−1.9▼ 7.4#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SYR

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#32

Offense

◀ SYR better

#82

#87

Defense

Even

#94

−0.2 #88

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

+0.2 #58

79 plays #1

Pace

◀ SYR faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #25	33.7 #119	SYR
Yards / play	6.06 #60	5.89 #96	SYR
PPA / play	+0.27 #22	+0.13 #84	SYR
Success rate	48% #21	42% #77	SYR

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #77	26.2 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #106	5.65 #79	SYR
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	+0.14 #86	Even
Success rate	45% #59	44% #101	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	7.0 #52	11.6 #21	18.6 #35	9.0 #19	7.0 #68	16.0 #38
NCSU allowed	11.0 #131	10.2 #105	21.2 #127	7.3 #104	5.2 #47	12.5 #78

NCSU scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	3.3 #116	7.2 #94	10.5 #109	7.5 #49	9.8 #16	17.3 #22
SYR allowed	4.0 #41	10.2 #110	14.2 #92	4.8 #52	6.6 #76	11.4 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.