Wake Forest @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

1-3 · Power #89

▲ winner

Final

NC State

3-2 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

NCSU -4.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 26–31 NCSU

✗ NCSU (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -6

CloseNCSU -4.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -6

1.5 → WAKE

CloseNCSU -4.5

1.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -6 · closed NCSU -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward WAKEmodel NCSU -7

model NCSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -6

CloseNCSU -4.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 4.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 34–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 4.4; 54 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Very close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Very close	TLSA vs MEM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–29	W	O60.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	15–14	L	U52
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	38–39	L	O56
Close	TROY vs WKU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–24	L	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE –WLL	1-2	33%	—	1-1
NCSU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE –OUO	2-1	67%	1-3
NCSU UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 251 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
NCSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WAKE 0–1 NCSU NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	NC State 26 @ Wake Forest 6	NCSU -1.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−3.0 →−5.1▼ 2.1#88

NCSU+5.5 →−0.9▼ 6.4#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WAKE

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#49

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#89

#125

Defense

NCSU better ▶

#97

0.0 #71

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #62

75 plays #9

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #69	33.6 #120	WAKE
Yards / play	6.17 #55	6.07 #102	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.22 #44	+0.13 #90	WAKE
Success rate	48% #28	41% #76	WAKE

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #83	31.3 #107	NCSU
Yards / play	5.30 #102	6.70 #129	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	+0.29 #130	NCSU
Success rate	42% #85	51% #132	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	5.8 #75	9.3 #59	15.0 #67	11.3 #9	3.5 #123	14.8 #54
NCSU allowed	11.2 #131	10.8 #120	22.0 #129	8.2 #113	3.4 #27	11.6 #67

NCSU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	3.4 #111	6.0 #101	9.4 #111	7.6 #53	10.4 #18	18.0 #26
WAKE allowed	11.0 #130	6.8 #60	17.8 #113	4.3 #47	9.3 #118	13.5 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.