Clemson @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

4-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

2-3 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

CLEM -21.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 40–19 WAKE

✓ CLEM (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -20.5

CloseCLEM -21.5

Total60.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -20.5

1 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -21.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open60.5

▲ 3

Close63.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -20.5 · closed CLEM -21.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -17.5

model CLEM -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -20.5

CloseCLEM -21.5

Total60.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 21.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 49–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 63 points stayed under 63.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.8 against an average line of 21.8; 66.8 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	54–29	W	O64.25
Close	MICH @ MD 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-16	59–18	W	O57.75
Close	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Close	TENN @ SC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-22.5	38–63	L	O67
Close	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	41–16	W	O53
Close	LOU @ DUKE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-20	62–22	W	O60.5
Close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Close	UGA @ GT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	31–23	L	U59.5
Close	LIB @ UNT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	35–26	L	P61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LWWWL	3-2	60%	0-1	3-1
WAKE –WLLW	2-2	50%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
WAKE –OUOO	3-1	75%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 42% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WAKE	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLEM 1–0 WAKE CLEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Wake Forest 12 @ Clemson 17	CLEM -20	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+12.9 →+14.5▲ 1.6#13

WAKE−3.0 →−3.9▼ 0.9#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CLEM

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#20

Offense

◀ CLEM better

#50

#63

Defense

◀ CLEM better

#121

+1.4 #10

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

0.0 #69

65 plays #79

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

72 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	39.4 #16	31.0 #105	CLEM
Yards / play	7.12 #15	6.45 #121	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.40 #10	+0.25 #123	CLEM
Success rate	46% #40	52% #133	CLEM

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #60	23.2 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #63	5.56 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.07 #61	Even
Success rate	47% #31	39% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	18.0 #1	10.2 #47	28.2 #3	7.4 #55	3.8 #124	11.2 #100
WAKE allowed	9.4 #127	8.0 #78	17.4 #111	4.8 #55	8.8 #112	13.6 #96

WAKE scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.6 #65	8.8 #61	15.4 #63	9.6 #19	5.6 #100	15.2 #41
CLEM allowed	0.0 #1	8.0 #78	8.0 #22	5.6 #74	9.6 #121	15.2 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.