Missouri @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff65°F12 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Missouri

4-1 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

1-5 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

MIZ -27.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 38–11 MASS

✓ MIZ (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -27.5

CloseMIZ -27.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -27.5

no move

CloseMIZ -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -27.5 · unchangedmodel MIZ -25.5

model MIZ -25.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -27.5

CloseMIZ -27.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 27.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 45–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.3 against an average line of 25.6; 60.1 points a game (usually 56). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	HOU @ TEM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	37–8	W	U52.5
Close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-26	56–23	W	O50
Close	ISU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-32	48–3	W	U52.5
Close	KSU @ KU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-24	35–10	W	U55.75
Close	TOL @ MASS 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	45–7	W	U56.5
Loose	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Loose	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Loose	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WWLLL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2
MASS WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UUUOO	2-3	40%	4-1
MASS OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MASS	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+14.2 →+9.6▼ 4.6#24

MASS−12.1 →−16.3▼ 4.2#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIZ

Longer bar = better

MASS

#54

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#116

#36

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#85

+0.6 #36

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

+0.2 #65

74 plays #7

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #54	31.3 #108	MIZ
Yards / play	5.76 #80	5.65 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #44	+0.11 #83	MIZ
Success rate	46% #36	40% #65	MIZ

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	MASS off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #120	17.8 #25	MIZ
Yards / play	4.86 #122	5.08 #48	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.07 #55	MIZ
Success rate	37% #118	35% #17	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.2 #33	9.0 #57	17.2 #49	8.2 #34	3.8 #124	12.0 #86
MASS allowed	4.7 #57	8.5 #90	13.2 #82	7.8 #109	9.8 #123	17.7 #124

MASS scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	3.5 #112	6.5 #100	10.0 #113	2.8 #123	6.3 #82	9.2 #120
MIZ allowed	4.8 #61	5.4 #39	10.2 #50	3.4 #28	2.8 #11	6.2 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.