South Carolina @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

3-2 · Power #13

final

Final

Alabama

4-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -19.5

✓ SC W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 15–35 ALA

✓ ALA (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -22.5

CloseALA -19.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -22.5

3 → SC

CloseALA -19.5

3 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -22.5 · closed ALA -19.5 · moved 3 toward SCmodel ALA -20

model ALA -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 52% (46 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -22.5

CloseALA -19.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 19.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 27–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23 against an average line of 19.2; 55.8 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21	31–13	L	U50
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-18	30–27	L	O52
Close	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-22	49–27	P	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC LWWWL	3-2	60%	1-0	2-1
ALA WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2
ALA OUOOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 262 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
ALA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SC 3–16 ALA ALA leads · 19 games since 1937 · ALA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+5.6 →+7.9▲ 2.3#29

ALA+20.2 →+23.0▲ 2.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

ALA

#97

Offense

ALA better ▶

#13

#31

Defense

Even

#24

+0.4 #54

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #63

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ SC faster

59 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	SC off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #78	20.0 #41	ALA
Yards / play	5.20 #109	4.52 #14	ALA
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	−0.02 #21	ALA
Success rate	39% #106	36% #21	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	44.6 #8	19.0 #32	ALA
Yards / play	7.90 #4	4.55 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #8	−0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	47% #30	39% #52	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SC scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.8 #39	6.6 #98	14.4 #74	4.8 #95	8.8 #38	13.6 #68
ALA allowed	3.8 #40	4.0 #19	7.8 #18	5.8 #77	6.4 #76	12.2 #76

ALA scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	12.6 #6	11.6 #24	24.2 #11	9.0 #23	11.4 #9	20.4 #9
SC allowed	4.2 #50	7.8 #75	12.0 #66	3.6 #34	3.4 #22	7.0 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.