Alabama @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

5-1 · Power #7

final

Final

Tennessee

5-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -3.5

✓ TENN W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 30–27 TENN

✗ ALA (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -3

CloseALA -3.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -3

0.5 → ALA

CloseALA -3.5

0.5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Close57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -3 · closed ALA -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward ALAmodel TENN -1

model TENN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 43% (94 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -3

CloseALA -3.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 3.5-point road favorite at TENN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TENN won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 3.5; 61.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	LSU @ MISS 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	49–55	L	O67
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	TENN @ LSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	40–13	W	U63.5
Close	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	31–24	W	P55
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–38	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-3
TENN WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; TENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA UOOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
TENN OOUUU	3-3	50%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 1–0 TENN ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Tennessee 20 @ Alabama 34	ALA -8.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.2 →+21.5▲ 1.3#4

TENN+13.9 →+19.4▲ 5.5#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ALA

Longer bar = better

TENN

#15

Offense

◀ ALA better

#31

#29

Defense

TENN better ▶

+0.5 #43

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #51

60 plays #129

Pace

TENN faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #10	10.7 #4	Even
Yards / play	7.42 #8	4.03 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #12	−0.13 #4	Even
Success rate	48% #30	35% #9	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #9	20.8 #43	TENN
Yards / play	6.55 #32	4.64 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #36	0.00 #26	Even
Success rate	46% #46	37% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	11.7 #6	10.8 #31	22.5 #13	7.5 #42	11.7 #7	19.2 #11
TENN allowed	1.5 #8	0.5 #1	2.0 #1	4.0 #31	4.7 #33	8.7 #24

TENN scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	13.0 #4	11.8 #19	24.8 #8	9.5 #17	6.8 #72	16.3 #30
ALA allowed	3.2 #25	5.3 #38	8.5 #27	6.0 #79	6.3 #72	12.3 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.