Penn State @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

5-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

USC

3-2 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

PSU -3.5

✓ USC W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 27–24 USC

✓ PSU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -4

ClosePSU -3.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -4

0.5 → USC

ClosePSU -3.5

0.5 pts toward USC

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -4 · closed PSU -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward USCmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 42% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -4

ClosePSU -3.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at USC, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 33–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 8.6 against an average line of 3.6; 52.4 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	UTAH @ BYU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar total & season form	-7	17–26	L	U50
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	TA&M @ MISS 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.25	19–29	L	U57.5
Close	ASU @ BYU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5
Close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WL–LL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-3
USC WWLWL	3-2	60%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; USC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UO–UU	1-3	25%	5-0
USC UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 292 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
USC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PSU 5–7 USC USC leads · 12 games since 1922 · USC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+18.8 →+19.0▲ 0.2#8

USC+10.9 →+15.2▲ 4.3#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PSU

Longer bar = better

USC

#17

Offense

◀ PSU better

#40

Defense

◀ PSU better

#61

+0.8 #29

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.4 #97

63 plays #100

Pace

USC faster ▶

72 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #32	18.4 #28	Even
Yards / play	7.28 #13	5.61 #79	PSU
PPA / play	+0.33 #14	+0.04 #44	PSU
Success rate	53% #9	43% #93	PSU

When USC has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	USC off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #59	11.4 #8	PSU
Yards / play	6.16 #50	4.01 #5	PSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #35	−0.05 #15	Even
Success rate	51% #14	34% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.2 #99	13.6 #9	17.8 #46	9.0 #22	7.6 #49	16.6 #31
USC allowed	3.4 #34	7.6 #70	11.0 #57	2.6 #14	4.8 #44	7.4 #23

USC scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	3.4 #113	8.6 #66	12.0 #94	9.0 #22	9.8 #18	18.8 #15
PSU allowed	3.4 #34	4.6 #26	8.0 #21	0.0 #1	3.4 #20	3.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.