Ohio State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

5-0 · Power #1

final

Final

Oregon

5-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -3.5

✓ ORE W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 30–27 ORE

✗ OSU (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -3.5

CloseOSU -3.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -3.5

no move

CloseOSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel OSU -2.5

model OSU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 41% (84 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -3.5

CloseOSU -3.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at ORE, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 32–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 4.7; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	MICH @ PSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	24–15	W	U44.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	TENN @ FLA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-5	16–29	L	U56.5
Loose	TENN @ PITT 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	34–27	W	U62.75
Loose	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	38–10	W	U59
Loose	CIN @ IU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	38–24	W	O50
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	3-2
ORE –L–LL	0-3	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; ORE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-0
ORE –O–UU	1-2	33%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 255 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%
ORE	9-1 90%	3-5 38%	2-5-1 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+26.0▲ 4.7#1

ORE+22.4 →+19.8▼ 2.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

OSU

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

◀ OSU better

#29

Defense

Even

#17

+1.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

−0.2 #86

67 plays #68

Pace

ORE faster ▶

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #5	17.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	7.66 #6	4.59 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.56 #1	−0.01 #22	OSU
Success rate	56% #3	34% #5	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	ORE off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #31	6.8 #1	OSU
Yards / play	6.51 #34	3.61 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #38	−0.12 #5	OSU
Success rate	51% #13	35% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	9.0 #21	13.2 #9	22.2 #14	16.8 #1	7.0 #68	23.8 #2
ORE allowed	2.6 #19	6.2 #55	8.8 #29	2.0 #9	6.2 #70	8.2 #26

ORE scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.0 #53	12.8 #11	19.8 #24	5.2 #85	10.0 #14	15.2 #45
OSU allowed	2.0 #9	2.8 #9	4.8 #6	0.6 #3	1.4 #1	2.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.