Northwestern @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Fri, Oct 11, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

2-3 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

3-2 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

MD -10.5

✓ NU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 17–29 MD

✗ MD (80%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -10

CloseMD -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMD -10

0.5 → MD

CloseMD -10.5

0.5 pts toward Maryland

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MD -10 · closed MD -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward MDmodel MD -16.5

model MD -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -10

CloseMD -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 10.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NU won 37–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 12.6; 45.8 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	UAB vs LT 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.75	52–38	W	O49
Close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	NCST vs VT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.25	22–21	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WLL–L	1-3	25%	—	0-1
MD WL–LL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOU–O	2-2	50%	2-3
MD OO–OO	4-0	100%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%
MD	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 1–0 MD NU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Maryland 27 @ Northwestern 33	MD -14	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU0.0 →−4.9▼ 4.9#88

MD+6.6 →+7.5▲ 0.9#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

#122

Offense

MD better ▶

#36

#76

Defense

Even

#65

0.0 #81

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+2.2 #1

63 plays #107

Pace

MD faster ▶

73 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	NU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #123	21.8 #53	MD
Yards / play	4.82 #123	5.62 #82	MD
PPA / play	−0.08 #133	+0.03 #41	MD
Success rate	39% #108	42% #84	MD

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #36	20.8 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #48	5.45 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #26	+0.11 #82	MD
Success rate	47% #32	45% #112	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	2.6 #126	5.2 #116	7.8 #124	5.4 #84	4.0 #117	9.4 #118
MD allowed	2.0 #9	6.8 #57	8.8 #33	6.2 #80	6.8 #81	13.0 #93

MD scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	9.0 #22	6.0 #105	15.0 #66	9.4 #20	9.0 #31	18.4 #20
NU allowed	4.8 #60	5.4 #38	10.2 #49	2.0 #9	6.0 #65	8.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.