Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

4-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

3-3 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

WIS -9.5

✓ WIS W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 25–16 NU

✓ WIS (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -7

CloseWIS -9.5

Total40.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -7

2.5 → WIS

CloseWIS -9.5

2.5 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open40.5

▲ 2

Close42.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -7 · closed WIS -9.5 · moved 2.5 toward WISmodel WIS -8

model WIS -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 55% (43 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -7

CloseWIS -9.5

Total40.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 9.5-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 23–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 8.8; 47.7 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Very close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Close	CLEM @ SC 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	30–0	W	U42.5
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-2
NU LL–LW	2-3	40%	1-3	1-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
NU OU–OO	3-2	60%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 2. 54% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%
NU	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 0–1 NU NU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Northwestern 24 @ Wisconsin 10	WIS -12	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.7 →+7.9▲ 2.2#30

NU0.0 →−1.6▼ 1.6#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WIS

Longer bar = better

#54

Offense

◀ WIS better

#119

#56

Defense

Even

#54

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+0.7 #35

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ WIS faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #60	19.0 #27	NU
Yards / play	5.91 #67	5.18 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #61	+0.03 #39	NU
Success rate	48% #28	44% #98	WIS

When NU has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	NU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #113	20.0 #31	WIS
Yards / play	4.91 #121	5.23 #55	WIS
PPA / play	−0.04 #126	+0.14 #92	WIS
Success rate	38% #114	39% #46	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	8.7 #22	5.7 #112	14.3 #69	8.0 #28	7.7 #52	15.7 #38
NU allowed	4.0 #42	5.7 #43	9.7 #39	1.7 #7	5.5 #53	7.2 #15

NU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.3 #115	6.0 #106	9.3 #116	4.5 #101	6.7 #75	11.2 #102
WIS allowed	2.3 #13	5.5 #42	7.8 #19	6.3 #84	5.8 #59	12.2 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.