Iowa @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Iowa

4-2 · Power #30

final

Final

Michigan State

3-3 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -6.5

✓ MSU W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 23–16 MSU

✗ IOWA (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -6.5

CloseIOWA -6.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -6.5

no move

CloseIOWA -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

▼ 2

Close39.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -6.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -8

model IOWA -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -6.5

CloseIOWA -6.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 6.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 32–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 39.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 6; 48.2 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	21–38	L	O45
Close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2
MSU WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	3-1

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA OOOUO	4-1	80%	4-2
MSU OUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	2-6 25%	4-4 50%
MSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IOWA 1–0 MSU IOWA leads · 1 game since 2023 · IOWA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Michigan State 16 @ Iowa 26	IOWA -10	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+2.5 →+10.0▲ 7.5#24

MSU−3.8 →0.0▲ 3.8#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

IOWA

Longer bar = better

MSU

#72

Offense

◀ IOWA better

#103

#38

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#52

+1.0 #19

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

−1.0 #121

62 plays #112

Pace

Even

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #67	21.0 #44	MSU
Yards / play	5.80 #77	5.13 #46	MSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.07 #59	Even
Success rate	43% #69	40% #58	Even

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #121	17.7 #23	IOWA
Yards / play	5.78 #80	5.04 #36	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.03 #38	IOWA
Success rate	41% #91	40% #54	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	4.0 #105	5.3 #116	9.3 #118	8.8 #22	11.0 #8	19.8 #7
MSU allowed	4.0 #47	7.3 #69	11.3 #57	6.2 #84	3.5 #13	9.7 #33

MSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.3 #102	9.0 #57	13.3 #84	1.0 #133	5.5 #99	6.5 #130
IOWA allowed	1.2 #4	6.3 #50	7.5 #16	7.0 #98	3.2 #10	10.2 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.