UCLA @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

1-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

4-2 · Power #51

final

Closing spread

RUTG -4.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 20–25 RUTG

✗ RUTG (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -6.5

CloseRUTG -4.5

Total40.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -6.5

2 → UCLA

CloseRUTG -4.5

2 pts toward UCLA

Total

Open40.5

▲ 2

Close42.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -6.5 · closed RUTG -4.5 · moved 2 toward UCLAmodel RUTG -7.5

model RUTG -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -6.5

CloseRUTG -4.5

Total40.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 4.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 35–32 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 4.6; 51.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	26–27	L	O44
Very close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	27–10	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA L–WWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2
RUTG WWWLL	3-3	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA O–UUU	1-4	20%	1-5
RUTG OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 143 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%
RUTG	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+7.7 →−0.6▼ 8.3#69

RUTG+2.4 →+2.4–#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UCLA

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#130

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#93

#99

Defense

RUTG better ▶

#69

−1.2 #128

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+0.5 #46

56 plays #134

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	UCLA off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #135	20.2 #35	RUTG
Yards / play	4.89 #122	5.76 #85	RUTG
PPA / play	−0.05 #127	+0.09 #69	RUTG
Success rate	34% #134	42% #86	RUTG

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #92	28.5 #96	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #95	5.41 #68	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	+0.17 #106	Even
Success rate	41% #89	48% #127	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.3 #115	4.5 #123	7.8 #127	2.7 #125	4.0 #126	6.7 #129
RUTG allowed	4.0 #42	4.0 #18	8.0 #21	4.7 #49	7.5 #95	12.2 #69

RUTG scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.7 #92	6.7 #100	11.3 #100	5.8 #75	8.5 #38	14.3 #53
UCLA allowed	5.8 #83	9.2 #96	15.0 #99	6.8 #94	6.7 #77	13.5 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.