Wisconsin @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

3-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

4-1 · Power #51

final

Closing spread

RUTG -1.5

✓ WIS W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 20–22 RUTG

✗ RUTG (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

CloseRUTG -1.5

Total39.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -2.5

1 → WIS

CloseRUTG -1.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open39.5

▲ 4

Close43.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -2.5 · closed RUTG -1.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel RUTG -4.5

model RUTG -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

CloseRUTG -1.5

Total39.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 1.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WIS won 42–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 3.2; 55.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	45–20	W	O45
Close	WISC vs MINN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–23	L	O37
Close	MINN vs ILL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	26–27	L	O44
Close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	34–17	W	O47
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Close	CAL vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	49–31	W	O50.5
Close	IOWA vs ILL 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	15–13	L	U33.5
Close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–17	W	U48
Close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-1	0-2
RUTG LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2
RUTG UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 162 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%
RUTG	5-5 50%	4-4-1 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 1–0 RUTG WIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · WIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Rutgers 13 @ Wisconsin 24	WIS -13	RUTG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.7 →+4.9▼ 0.8#49

RUTG+2.4 →+6.1▲ 3.7#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WIS

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#70

Offense

Even

#76

#75

Defense

RUTG better ▶

#48

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+0.4 #55

69 plays #41

Pace

◀ WIS faster

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	WIS off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #81	15.8 #18	RUTG
Yards / play	5.60 #88	5.39 #61	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.15 #76	+0.06 #50	RUTG
Success rate	47% #33	40% #63	WIS

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #68	22.6 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #73	5.50 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	+0.19 #105	Even
Success rate	43% #76	40% #64	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	7.6 #41	6.8 #93	14.4 #74	6.8 #63	6.4 #80	13.2 #74
RUTG allowed	2.0 #9	4.8 #28	6.8 #10	2.8 #16	6.2 #72	9.0 #33

RUTG scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	5.6 #79	8.0 #75	13.6 #80	7.0 #59	8.8 #38	15.8 #39
WIS allowed	2.8 #23	6.6 #54	9.4 #36	7.6 #105	5.6 #59	13.2 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.