Washington @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Washington

4-2 · Power #31

final

Final

Iowa

3-2 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -2.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 20–22 IOWA

✓ IOWA (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -2.5

no move

CloseIOWA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▲ 1

Close41.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -2.5 · unchangedmodel WASH -1

model WASH -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 2.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 40–16; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2.5; 50.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC vs MINN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–23	L	O37
Very close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Very close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Very close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	NU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–26	L	O37.5
Close	RUTG vs WASH 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.25	21–18	W	U45
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–20	W	O41
Close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH L––LW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1
IOWA –LLWL	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH U––UO	1-3	25%	4-2
IOWA –OOOU	3-1	75%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 114 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	7-3 70%	4-4 50%	2-5-1 29%
IOWA	6-4 60%	1-6 14%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WASH 3–5 IOWA IOWA leads · 8 games since 1937 · IOWA has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+12.9 →+12.9–#16

IOWA+2.5 →+8.1▲ 5.6#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WASH

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#35

Offense

◀ WASH better

#82

#14

Defense

◀ WASH better

#42

+0.5 #43

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+0.8 #25

66 plays #77

Pace

◀ WASH faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #96	18.0 #26	IOWA
Yards / play	7.06 #17	5.08 #46	WASH
PPA / play	+0.32 #17	+0.03 #40	WASH
Success rate	53% #8	40% #57	WASH

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	IOWA off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #87	13.2 #10	WASH
Yards / play	5.70 #81	4.16 #6	WASH
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	−0.08 #8	WASH
Success rate	43% #77	37% #32	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	4.0 #102	9.7 #49	13.7 #78	6.0 #77	5.8 #90	11.8 #89
IOWA allowed	1.4 #6	5.6 #40	7.0 #12	8.4 #116	2.6 #8	11.0 #54

IOWA scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.4 #113	3.8 #129	7.2 #129	10.0 #13	9.8 #17	19.8 #11
WASH allowed	2.2 #17	6.0 #45	8.2 #28	3.3 #23	1.7 #3	5.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.