Washington @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Fri, Sep 27, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington

3-1 · Power #31

final

Final

Rutgers

3-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

RUTG -1.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 23–24 RUTG

✓ RUTG (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

CloseRUTG -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -2.5

1 → WASH

CloseRUTG -1.5

1 pt toward Washington

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -2.5 · closed RUTG -1.5 · moved 1 toward WASHmodel WASH -1.5

model WASH -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 44% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 55% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

CloseRUTG -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 1.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 21–18; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 3; 47.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	23–20	W	O41
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Close	WVU vs VT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	27–21	W	U49.5
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	45–20	W	O45
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WL––	1-1	50%	—	—
RUTG LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UU––	0-2	0%	3-1
RUTG UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	8-2 80%	4-4 50%	2-5-1 29%
RUTG	6-4 60%	4-4-1 50%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+12.9 →+12.3▼ 0.6#19

RUTG+2.4 →+6.8▲ 4.4#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WASH

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#34

Offense

Even

#32

#10

Defense

◀ WASH better

#33

+0.5 #53

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+1.0 #31

65 plays #84

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #87	15.7 #30	RUTG
Yards / play	7.05 #22	5.10 #57	WASH
PPA / play	+0.34 #20	−0.09 #14	Even
Success rate	55% #8	35% #31	WASH

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	RUTG off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #21	10.3 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #32	3.80 #9	WASH
PPA / play	+0.22 #51	−0.20 #3	WASH
Success rate	50% #22	33% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.5 #103	12.8 #26	16.3 #65	7.3 #61	3.5 #115	10.8 #96
RUTG allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #45	5.7 #15	2.3 #18	7.7 #98	10.0 #54

RUTG scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	9.3 #32	8.7 #69	18.0 #45	11.7 #10	10.0 #21	21.7 #11
WASH allowed	3.3 #40	3.0 #19	6.3 #18	3.3 #29	0.8 #3	4.0 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.