Illinois @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Illinois

4-0 · Power #44

final

Final

Penn State

3-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -19.5

✓ ILL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 14–34 PSU

✓ PSU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -17.5

ClosePSU -19.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -17.5

2 → PSU

ClosePSU -19.5

2 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -17.5 · closed PSU -19.5 · moved 2 toward PSUmodel PSU -21.5

model PSU -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 51% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -17.5

ClosePSU -19.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 19.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 21–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 19.4; 53.2 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	MICH vs RUTG 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	31–7	P	U44
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Close	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & rest	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5
Loose	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Loose	MICH vs RUTG 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-20.25	20–13	L	U50
Loose	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-16.5	45–24	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-0
PSU WL–	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0
PSU UO–	1-1	50%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
PSU	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 0–1 PSU PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Penn State 30 @ Illinois 13	PSU -14	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.5 →+3.4▲ 3.9#54

PSU+18.8 →+19.9▲ 1.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ILL

Longer bar = better

PSU

#55

Offense

PSU better ▶

#12

#45

Defense

PSU better ▶

#21

+1.8 #6

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

+0.7 #48

64 plays #93

Pace

PSU faster ▶

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	ILL off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #52	13.0 #21	PSU
Yards / play	5.97 #74	3.93 #10	PSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #27	−0.08 #21	Even
Success rate	44% #65	35% #30	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #17	12.5 #16	Even
Yards / play	8.15 #5	4.73 #36	PSU
PPA / play	+0.40 #13	+0.03 #51	PSU
Success rate	52% #12	41% #76	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	7.8 #44	9.0 #61	16.8 #56	6.0 #76	7.8 #51	13.8 #66
PSU allowed	3.3 #38	6.7 #59	10.0 #49	0.0 #1	3.0 #24	3.0 #2

PSU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.7 #91	18.0 #1	22.7 #20	9.3 #23	9.3 #29	18.7 #22
ILL allowed	3.3 #34	5.0 #36	8.3 #31	1.8 #12	2.5 #16	4.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.