Minnesota @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F14 mphgusts 29Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota

2-2 · Power #26

final

Final

Michigan

3-1 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -10.5

✓ MINN W

Total

34.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 11–22 MICH

✓ MICH (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -10.5

CloseMICH -10.5

Total39.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -10.5

no move

CloseMICH -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open39.5

▼ 5

Close34.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -10.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -14.5

model MICH -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -10.5

CloseMICH -10.5

Total39.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 10.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 34.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 10.8; 49.1 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WISC vs ARMY 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & total	-14	20–14	L	U37.5
Close	WIS vs IOWA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	6–15	L	U33.5
Close	WIS vs RUTG 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	24–13	L	U44
Close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Close	ND vs CAL 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-13.5	24–17	L	P41
Loose	UTAH vs ASU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10.5	55–3	W	O39
Loose	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Loose	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Loose	UTSA vs ARMY 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-7	29–37	L	O41.75
Loose	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	48–41	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LWWL	2-2	50%	—	0-2
MICH –L–W	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
MICH –O–O	2-0	100%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 30.5–38.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MICH	9-1 90%	6-2 75%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MINN 0–1 MICH MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Michigan 52 @ Minnesota 10	MICH -20	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−1.4 →+2.3▲ 3.7#60

MICH+21.1 →+12.5▼ 8.6#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MINN

Longer bar = better

MICH

#72

Offense

◀ MINN better

#94

#19

Defense

◀ MINN better

#41

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

−1.0 #113

61 plays #116

Pace

Even

59 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MINN off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #90	20.8 #55	MICH
Yards / play	5.51 #96	4.82 #43	MICH
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.03 #50	Even
Success rate	47% #35	33% #15	Even

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	MICH off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #103	12.5 #14	MINN
Yards / play	5.53 #95	3.99 #12	MINN
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	−0.05 #26	MINN
Success rate	43% #75	34% #22	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	2.3 #125	14.0 #15	16.3 #65	5.3 #89	5.0 #100	10.3 #100
MICH allowed	1.8 #15	6.5 #57	8.3 #39	5.3 #62	7.3 #94	12.5 #79

MICH scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	5.3 #79	6.8 #92	12.0 #93	3.0 #121	9.3 #31	12.3 #78
MINN allowed	1.8 #15	1.8 #9	3.5 #6	5.8 #76	3.3 #29	9.0 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.