Oklahoma State @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

3-1 · Power #87

final

Final

Kansas State

3-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -5.5

✓ KSU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 26–32 KSU

✓ KSU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -5.5

CloseKSU -5.5

Total54.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -5.5

no move

CloseKSU -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 4

Close58.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -5.5 · unchangedmodel KSU -8

model KSU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -5.5

CloseKSU -5.5

Total54.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 5.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: KSU won 42–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 58.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 4.3; 61.3 points a game (usually 53). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Very close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Very close	CLEM vs WAKE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	48–27	W	O57
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Very close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	43–42	L	O65
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	17–26	L	U58
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3	16–28	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WLWL	2-2	50%	1-0	0-1
KSU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1
KSU UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 185 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
KSU	7-3 70%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OKST 1–0 KSU OKST leads · 1 game since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2023	Kansas State 21 @ Oklahoma State 29	KSU -10	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST+4.1 →+6.0▲ 1.9#37

KSU+11.5 →+10.9▼ 0.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

OKST

Longer bar = better

KSU

#60

Offense

KSU better ▶

#45

#62

Defense

Even

#54

+1.0 #28

Turnovers

◀ OKST better

−0.5 #96

70 plays #37

Pace

◀ OKST faster

62 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #29	19.5 #46	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #82	5.17 #60	KSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #38	+0.08 #69	OKST
Success rate	41% #92	36% #40	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #79	20.8 #56	OKST
Yards / play	6.46 #41	5.99 #101	KSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #34	+0.01 #40	Even
Success rate	49% #24	38% #52	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.0 #84	8.8 #66	13.8 #81	9.3 #24	11.8 #13	21.0 #13
KSU allowed	3.5 #55	8.3 #90	11.8 #73	4.3 #45	3.5 #35	7.8 #31

KSU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.8 #63	5.0 #112	11.8 #95	9.3 #24	7.8 #51	17.0 #34
OKST allowed	3.5 #55	5.8 #52	9.3 #50	2.5 #21	9.0 #118	11.5 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.