Virginia Tech @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Fri, Sep 27, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

2-2 · Power #38

final

Final

Miami

4-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -17.5

✓ VT W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 18–35 MIA

✓ MIA (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -16.5

CloseMIA -17.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -16.5

1 → MIA

CloseMIA -17.5

1 pt toward Miami

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -16.5 · closed MIA -17.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -18.5

model MIA -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 53% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -16.5

CloseMIA -17.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 17.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 38–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 18.3; 65.9 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Close	MIA vs GT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-19	20–23	L	U57
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Loose	WISC vs WSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-17.5	14–17	L	U49
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5
Loose	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-15.5	48–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	—
MIA WW–W	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
MIA OO–O	3-0	100%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 226 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
MIA	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

VT 15–27 MIA MIA leads · 42 games since 1953 · MIA has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+4.6 →+6.0▲ 1.4#38

MIA+9.9 →+20.3▲ 10.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

MIA

#87

Offense

MIA better ▶

#64

Defense

MIA better ▶

#10

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+1.5 #7

67 plays #62

Pace

MIA faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	VT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #76	10.3 #10	MIA
Yards / play	5.69 #87	3.98 #12	MIA
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	−0.17 #6	MIA
Success rate	40% #101	32% #10	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	52.3 #4	22.8 #68	MIA
Yards / play	8.83 #2	5.33 #65	MIA
PPA / play	+0.60 #3	+0.07 #68	MIA
Success rate	56% #6	38% #54	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	5.3 #78	3.3 #126	8.5 #112	7.5 #60	13.5 #5	21.0 #14
MIA allowed	3.8 #62	4.0 #28	7.8 #31	0.8 #4	1.8 #12	2.5 #6

MIA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.5 #16	14.0 #15	25.5 #13	14.8 #3	12.0 #12	26.8 #1
VT allowed	4.3 #65	8.3 #89	12.5 #82	4.3 #45	4.3 #50	8.5 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.