Florida State @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

1-3 · Power #85

final

Final

SMU

3-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -5.5

✓ SMU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 21–27 SMU

✓ SMU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -4.5

CloseSMU -5.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -4.5

1 → SMU

CloseSMU -5.5

1 pt toward SMU

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -4.5 · closed SMU -5.5 · moved 1 toward SMUmodel SMU -8.5

model SMU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 52% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -4.5

CloseSMU -5.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 5.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 42–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 4.9; 51.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–21	L	U47
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	COLO vs MINN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	0–30	L	U49
Close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	42–24	W	O45
Close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–35	L	O48
Close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-6	34–17	W	O47
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-3	27–10	W	U45
Close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.75	34–43	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LLLW	1-3	25%	—	—
SMU L–L–	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3
SMU U–U–	0-2	0%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 209 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
SMU	8-2 80%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+14.6 →+4.9▼ 9.7#42

SMU+10.3 →+9.6▼ 0.7#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

FSU

Longer bar = better

SMU

#121

Offense

SMU better ▶

#58

#81

Defense

SMU better ▶

#29

−0.8 #111

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

+1.3 #13

60 plays #123

Pace

SMU faster ▶

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	FSU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #128	22.8 #64	SMU
Yards / play	4.63 #127	4.78 #32	SMU
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	−0.11 #11	SMU
Success rate	36% #120	33% #7	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	42.3 #14	20.3 #47	SMU
Yards / play	5.87 #72	5.48 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.19 #106	SMU
Success rate	43% #67	42% #96	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	3.8 #105	3.8 #123	7.5 #121	3.3 #119	4.3 #109	7.5 #122
SMU allowed	3.5 #44	9.5 #107	13.0 #82	5.5 #68	4.3 #47	9.8 #44

SMU scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	11.3 #16	14.3 #8	25.5 #10	7.8 #47	9.0 #32	16.8 #35
FSU allowed	2.5 #20	9.3 #103	11.8 #68	6.0 #75	2.5 #15	8.5 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.