TCU @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at SMU

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TCU

2-1 · Power #34

final

Final

SMU

2-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

TCU 27–30 SMU

✓ SMU (57%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—
SMU L–L	0-2	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: TCU away; SMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
SMU U–U	0-2	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%
SMU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 1–0 SMU TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	SMU 17 @ TCU 34	TCU -7	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.0 →+8.4▲ 1.4#25

SMU+10.3 →+8.4▼ 1.9#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TCU

Longer bar = better

SMU

#33

Offense

◀ TCU better

#75

#69

Defense

SMU better ▶

#21

0.0 #72

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

+0.3 #56

71 plays #26

Pace

Even

73 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #25	16.3 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #55	4.21 #26	SMU
PPA / play	+0.30 #30	−0.21 #4	SMU
Success rate	52% #20	30% #9	Even

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #42	20.7 #64	SMU
Yards / play	5.80 #85	4.55 #41	TCU
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.12 #87	Even
Success rate	42% #78	41% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	10.3 #24	10.3 #48	20.7 #33	9.0 #34	8.0 #39	17.0 #36
SMU allowed	4.7 #67	5.7 #46	10.3 #63	5.0 #60	1.0 #9	6.0 #27

SMU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	9.3 #31	11.0 #46	20.3 #36	4.3 #99	9.7 #24	14.0 #61
TCU allowed	2.3 #23	5.7 #46	8.0 #36	4.3 #52	8.3 #107	12.7 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.