UCF @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff92°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

UCF

2-0 · Power #37

▲ winner

Final

TCU

2-0 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

TCU -2.5

✓ UCF W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 29–31 TCU

✗ TCU (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -0.5

CloseTCU -2.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -0.5

2 → TCU

CloseTCU -2.5

2 pts toward TCU

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -0.5 · closed TCU -2.5 · moved 2 toward TCUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -0.5

CloseTCU -2.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 2.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 35–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 59.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 3.3; 61.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	SYR vs PUR 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	32–29	W	O59.5
Loose	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	34–17	W	U63
Loose	ND vs USC 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	48–20	W	O61
Loose	WASH vs ORE 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3	36–33	P	O67
Loose	ORST vs WASH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1	20–22	L	U62.5
Loose	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Loose	WASH vs MSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	39–28	W	O56.5
Loose	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Loose	BYU vs BAY 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	26–20	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WW	2-0	100%	—	—
TCU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OO	2-0	100%	2-0
TCU OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 146 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-6 33%
TCU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UCF 2–0 TCU UCF leads · 2 games since 2024 · UCF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.5 →+11.5▲ 5.0#20

TCU+7.0 →+8.6▲ 1.6#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UCF

Longer bar = better

TCU

#13

Offense

◀ UCF better

#39

#15

Defense

◀ UCF better

#29

+0.5 #45

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

0.0 #66

75 plays #17

Pace

◀ UCF faster

72 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #8	13.5 #39	UCF
Yards / play	7.95 #12	3.20 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #19	−0.09 #37	Even
Success rate	57% #11	33% #33	UCF

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	TCU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #33	8.5 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.17 #63	4.04 #27	UCF
PPA / play	+0.28 #43	−0.21 #12	UCF
Success rate	55% #15	22% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	10.0	16.5	26.5	21.0	3.5	24.5
TCU allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	0.0	5.0	5.0

TCU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	8.5	12.0	20.5	8.5	10.5	19.0
UCF allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.