West Virginia @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Pittsburgh

Weather at kickoff83°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

1-1 · Power #63

final

Final

Pittsburgh

2-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -1.5

✓ PITT W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 28–26 PITT

✗ WVU (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -1.5

CloseWVU -1.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWVU -1.5

no move

CloseWVU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WVU -1.5 · unchangedmodel WVU -0.5

model WVU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 48% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -1.5

CloseWVU -1.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 1.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 38–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 61.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.6; 63.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	25–24	P	U60.5
Very close	MSST @ MEM 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	29–31	L	U63.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Close	WAKE @ DUKE 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–34	L	U67.5
Close	BOIS @ UNLV 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	44–20	W	O62
Close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
PITT WL	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: WVU away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
PITT OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 109 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
PITT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WVU 1–0 PITT WVU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WVU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Pittsburgh 6 @ West Virginia 17	WVU -2.5	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+4.6 →+4.4▼ 0.2#45

PITT−0.9 →+1.7▲ 2.6#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WVU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#59

Offense

PITT better ▶

#33

#96

Defense

PITT better ▶

#79

−1.5 #129

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

0.0 #71

62 plays #98

Pace

PITT faster ▶

75 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #74	25.5 #97	WVU
Yards / play	6.44 #47	4.69 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	+0.12 #96	WVU
Success rate	47% #46	37% #66	Even

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #27	24.0 #88	PITT
Yards / play	7.15 #32	6.20 #111	PITT
PPA / play	+0.26 #49	+0.23 #113	PITT
Success rate	51% #24	38% #71	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.0	10.0	17.0	7.0	6.5	13.5
PITT allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	10.0	0.0	10.0

PITT scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	8.5	8.5	17.0	10.5	14.0	24.5
WVU allowed	0.0	17.0	17.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.