Arizona State @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Thu, Sep 12, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas State

Weather at kickoff87°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

2-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

2-0 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

TXST -2.5

✓ ASU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 29–31 TXST

✗ TXST (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -1.5

CloseTXST -2.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -1.5

1 → TXST

CloseTXST -2.5

1 pt toward Texas State

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -1.5 · closed TXST -2.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel ASU -0.5

model ASU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (114 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -1.5

CloseTXST -2.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 2.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 31–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 3.4; 54 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SYR vs PUR 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	32–29	W	O59.5
Close	TXST vs UTSA 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	49–10	W	P59
Loose	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Loose	CCU vs GAST 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–30	L	U62.5
Loose	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	ILL vs UVA 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4	24–3	W	U55
Loose	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Loose	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Loose	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WW	2-0	100%	—	—
TXST –W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OU	1-1	50%	2-0
TXST –O	1-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 167 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%
TXST	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ASU 2–0 TXST ASU leads · 2 games since 2024 · ASU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU−3.3 →+3.7▲ 7.0#50

TXST−3.2 →+0.1▲ 3.3#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ASU

Longer bar = better

TXST

#45

Offense

Even

#48

#44

Defense

Even

#38

+2.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

−0.5 #100

74 plays #23

Pace

Even

77 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #36	18.5 #65	ASU
Yards / play	6.18 #64	4.35 #43	TXST
PPA / play	+0.26 #53	−0.09 #38	Even
Success rate	51% #28	25% #7	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #28	15.0 #48	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #48	3.83 #22	ASU
PPA / play	+0.22 #56	−0.13 #30	ASU
Success rate	45% #60	38% #75	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 3 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	13.5	13.5	27.0	12.0	0.0	12.0
TXST allowed	1.5	0.0	1.5	8.5	8.5	17.0

TXST scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	14.5	12.0	26.5	5.0	10.0	15.0
ASU allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	3.5	10.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.