Arkansas State @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Michigan

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Arkansas State

2-0 · Power #113

final

Final

Michigan

1-1 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

ARST 11–37 MICH

✓ MICH (98%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST –L	0-1	0%	—	—
MICH –L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: ARST away; MICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST –U	0-1	0%	2-0
MICH –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	3-5 38%
MICH	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−7.2▲ 0.4#96

MICH+21.1 →+15.6▼ 5.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARST

Longer bar = better

MICH

#88

Offense

◀ ARST better

#109

#111

Defense

MICH better ▶

#70

−1.0 #110

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #109

83 plays #1

Pace

◀ ARST faster

59 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #71	20.5 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #101	5.02 #70	MICH
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.03 #75	Even
Success rate	38% #106	37% #65	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #106	27.5 #102	Even
Yards / play	4.73 #114	6.51 #119	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #122	+0.21 #111	Even
Success rate	40% #95	45% #110	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.5	3.5	10.0	14.0	7.0	21.0
MICH allowed	3.5	10.0	13.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

MICH scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5	3.0	6.5	3.0	11.5	14.5
ARST allowed	1.5	7.0	8.5	8.5	10.5	19.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.