Tulsa @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Arkansas State

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

1-0 · Power #131

final

Final

Arkansas State

1-0 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -9.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 26–34 ARST

✓ ARST (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -6

CloseARST -9.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -6

3.5 → ARST

CloseARST -9.5

3.5 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open64.5

▲ 1

Close65.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -6 · closed ARST -9.5 · moved 3.5 toward ARSTmodel ARST -0.5

model ARST -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 44% (55 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -6

CloseARST -9.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like ARST as a 9.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 28–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 2 similar games. 52 points stayed under 65.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 6.8; 61 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UTSA vs WKU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	31–28	L	U72.5
Loose	IU vs WKU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7	33–30	L	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA L	0-1	0%	—	—
ARST –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA O	1-0	100%	1-0
ARST –	0-0	—	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 44% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
ARST	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−9.9 →−6.9▲ 3.0#98

ARST−7.6 →−8.7▼ 1.1#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TLSA

Longer bar = better

ARST

#16

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#87

#73

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#111

−1.0 #99

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−2.0 #119

71 plays #39

Pace

ARST faster ▶

90 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	62.0 #8	31.0 #108	TLSA
Yards / play	8.76 #15	7.08 #117	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.69 #8	+0.31 #117	TLSA
Success rate	53% #34	43% #100	TLSA

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #66	28.0 #101	ARST
Yards / play	5.08 #96	4.26 #55	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.22 #103	Even
Success rate	38% #102	29% #33	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.